Huatai Securities Luo Yi liquidity steady tone unchanged focus on the banking sector opportunities mp7a1

Huatai Securities Luo Yi: liquidity steady tone unchanged focus on banking sector opportunities Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money from the public, WeChat chief analyst Luo Yi forecast September added about 8000-9500 billion credit and social financing scale of about 1 trillion and 400 billion by survey estimates, forecasts for September add about 8000-9500 billion yuan, the specific credit structure: large commercial banks about 2000-2500 billion yuan, the joint-stock commercial banks of about 2000-3000 billion yuan, policy banks and postal savings of about 100 billion yuan, city commercial banks and rural financial institutions about 300 billion yuan. Reference to the September 29th issue of corporate bonds and corporate bonds issued about 300 billion, equity financing of about $90 billion, estimated in September the scale of social financing is about 1 trillion and 400 billion. In terms of the characteristics of credit: personal investment is still residential mortgage loans, the growth rate is expected to slow down, the focus on the two public loans for government financing platform and real estate. The decline in the bank’s risk appetite makes it more emphasis on the project of the government related to the land and mortgage loans. Monthly new steady, or for the first three quarters of the new quarter of September the lowest local bond issuance fell, about 280 billion yuan, as of August 1/3, this month to offset the replacement of local debt credit function decline. Therefore, even if the return of local debt replacement, September new credit is also a healthy level. According to the September forecast data, the three quarter is expected to add credit to about 2 trillion and 300 billion, the lowest value in the first quarter of three. At the end of the quarter MPA assessment, or become an important factor affecting the bank credit, credit banks face generalized rapid tightening pressure, the three quarter of the overall pace of credit control, for the four quarter of the broad credit growth standards set aside enough space. The main reason for the steady flow of liquidity is not bad, the gradual decline in the rational expectations of the current rational supply side reform is deepening and a critical period of the game at home and abroad, the main tone of the steady flow of constant. Bank stocks from February to achieve a large excess return, reflecting the market is changing the preferences of funds, from the pursuit of speculation stocks transferred to the real growth of the real value of the big financial stocks. Under the steady flow of liquidity, bank shares to highlight the value of the allocation. Concerns about the NPL ratio of bank shares valuation constraints repair. Duocuobingju bad growth is expected to be suppressed. Block upstream, digest the hidden bad debt replacement; sparse downstream verification efforts to increase local AMC expansion, bad debt ABS landing, restart. In fact, bank shares and adverse and non-linear correlation, the investment value is not determined by the quality of the basic financial, but by the expected breakthrough and determines, prudent operation and actively reform the bank is expected to take the lead in the market is expected to break through. The incremental funds layout approach, focus on banking sector opportunities from just the disclosure of bank semi annual report can be observed, four large capital aggressively holdings of bank shares, shareholders, venture capital, the central enterprises, local financial holding etc.. The logic of large capital investment bank is very clear: the value of bank license, valuation is low, have a significant impact on the equity method of accounting theory相关的主题文章: